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Should I ship a Physics Strategy RPG?
Physics + Strategy RPG
Only 18 developers shipped a Physics Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starminer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 1700% on the market; 36 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $897 (exactly $897) |
| Top 25% | $9.6k (exactly $9,581) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 54 |
| Announced | 36 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1700% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Strategy RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Sandbox, Economy
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,081 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | HighFleet | older | $29.99 | 7,024 88% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) | Konstantin Koshutin |
| | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
| | Ancient Warfare 3 | older | $12.99 | 2,659 95% | 80k | $1.0M (exactly $1,036,212) | JNI Games |
| | Rising Star 2 | older | $19.99 | 670 94% | 20k | $402k (exactly $401,799) | Gilligames |
| | GearBlocks | · EA older | $14.99 | 759 90% | 23k | $341k (exactly $341,322) | SmashHammer Games |
| | Boat Crew | · EA older | $24.99 | 431 89% | 13k | $323k (exactly $323,121) | Tabbing Tabby |
| | Roundguard | older | $19.99 | 449 80% | 13k | $269k (exactly $269,265) | Wonderbelly Games |
| | Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) | older | $24.99 | 250 70% | 7.5k | $187k (exactly $187,425) | Auroch Digital |
| | Horny Housewives | older | $12.99 | 232 59% | 7.0k | $90k (exactly $90,410) | Entropy Digital Entertainment |
| | Duck Life: Retro Pack | older | $5.99 | 242 83% | 7.3k | $43k (exactly $43,487) | Wix Games |
| | Boxing Simulator | $7.99 | 79 79% | 2.4k | $19k (exactly $18,936) | Inogames | |
| | Critter Crossfire | $14.99 | 31 90% | 930 | $14k (exactly $13,941) | Evan Polekoff | |
| | Spacefleet: Heat Death | · EA | $11.99 | 36 86% | 1.1k | $13k (exactly $12,949) | Spacezero Interactive |
| | Duck Life 4 Classic | $4.99 | 64 90% | 1.9k | $9.6k (exactly $9,581) | Wix Games | |
| | Heroes Suck | $19.99 | 6 50% | 180 | $3.6k (exactly $3,598) | Dawning Light | |
| | Wild Script: Nature | · EA | $4.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) | Surdarium |
| | Forest Factory Simulator | $3.99 | 17 41% | 510 | $2.0k (exactly $2,035) | Samle Indie Studio | |
| | Rise Of Transport | · EA | $2.99 | 10 60% | 300 | $897 (exactly $897) | Softdimension Games |
| | Manifest369 power defence | · EA | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | ManifestStudios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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