Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Strategy RPG?

Physics + Strategy RPG

Only 18 developers shipped a Physics Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starminer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is up 1700% on the market; 36 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1700% on the market, 36 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $148 → $90k → $4.4k → $897 → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,581)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 54
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1700% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Sandbox, Economy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,081 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $900, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Ancient Warfare 3 older $12.99 2,659 95% 80k $1.0M (exactly $1,036,212) JNI Games
Rising Star 2 older $19.99 670 94% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Gilligames
GearBlocks · EA older $14.99 759 90% 23k $341k (exactly $341,322) SmashHammer Games
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Dark Future: Blood Red States (Classic) older $24.99 250 70% 7.5k $187k (exactly $187,425) Auroch Digital
Horny Housewives older $12.99 232 59% 7.0k $90k (exactly $90,410) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Duck Life: Retro Pack older $5.99 242 83% 7.3k $43k (exactly $43,487) Wix Games
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Critter Crossfire $14.99 31 90% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Evan Polekoff
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive
Duck Life 4 Classic $4.99 64 90% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Wix Games
Heroes Suck $19.99 6 50% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Dawning Light
Wild Script: Nature · EA $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Surdarium
Forest Factory Simulator $3.99 17 41% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) Samle Indie Studio
Rise Of Transport · EA $2.99 10 60% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Softdimension Games
Manifest369 power defence · EA $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) ManifestStudios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.