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Should I ship a Nature Physics game?
Physics + Nature
Of 281 developers who shipped a Nature Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 392 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $730, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1143 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 392 games are announced against 158 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $732 (exactly $732) |
| Top 25% | $4.8k (exactly $4,823) |
| Top 5% | $718k (exactly $717,841) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 281 |
| Released games | 643 |
| Announced | 392 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Adventure
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 218,537 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 143 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 392 games are announced against 158 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 2024 · $45M 
SnowRunner 2021 · $42M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M 
Farming Simulator 25 2024 · $36M 
Gorilla Tag 2023 · $32M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
| | SnowRunner | older | $29.99 | 46,343 90% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $41,694,797) | Saber Interactive |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
| | Farming Simulator 25 | $29.99 | 39,681 87% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,700,996) | GIANTS Software | |
| | Gorilla Tag | older | $19.99 | 52,637 93% | 1.6M | $32M (exactly $31,566,409) | Another Axiom Inc. |
 | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
 | RoadCraft | $39.99 | 13,527 74% | 406k | $16M (exactly $16,228,342) | Saber Interactive | |
 | How to Fish | $7.99 | 57,661 95% | 1.7M | $14M (exactly $13,821,342) | Dazed Games | |
 | Railroads Online | $29.99 | 5,410 75% | 162k | $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) | Stefan Kelnberger | |
 | Webbed | older | $9.99 | 13,820 97% | 415k | $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) | Sbug Games |
 | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
 | Baby Steps | $19.99 | 2,355 90% | 71k | $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) | Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy | |
 | Funnel Runners | · EA | $14.99 | 2,941 83% | 88k | $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) | Supernova Studios LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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