Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Physics game?

Physics + Gothic

Only 15 developers shipped a Gothic Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Grimlord, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1328 the market median. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $449 → $1.7k → $449 → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Top 5% $834k (exactly $834,022)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 32
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,267 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $630, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
The Baby In Yellow · EA older $8.99 2,340 96% 70k $631k (exactly $631,098) Team Terrible
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk
Skeleton Crew older $12.99 30 66% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) Cinder Cone
Fire Place older $4.99 68 52% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Pol Clarisso… (Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Pol Clarissou, Zoe Vartanian, Galen Drew)
No More Snow older $4.99 47 89% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Barzda
Coffin Rot Brewing Co. older $4.99 44 79% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Nooner Bear Studio LLC
MMY: Otherworld Mystery older $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Dnovel
Money Theft $4.99 13 76% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Mental Hellacious $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MoreNEWttoStudio
POLE VAULT $3.99 13 84% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) Mike Jensen, Brian May, Tyler Walters
Tears of the Maker $5.00 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,200) 8-Bit Waves
Porn Pinball $9.99 4 0% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Samejima
Gore Crush $2.99 7 85% 210 $628 (exactly $628) GIGATANK 3000
Dalafri $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Y.Kageyama
Mobs 'N Monsters $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ghostie Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.