Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Physics game?

Physics + Dystopian

Of 52 developers who shipped a Dystopian Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×848 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 127 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 127 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $3.2k → $449 → $598 → $2.1k → $598 → $538 (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $750 (exactly $750)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 5% $532k (exactly $532,287)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 130
Announced 127
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 9,907 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $750, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M Hardspace: Shipbreaker 2022 · $20M Crysis 3 Remastered 2022 · $7.0M Ghosts of Tabor 2023 · EA · $6.9M Arizona Sunshine® VR 2 2023 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
Arizona Sunshine® VR 2 older $29.99 2,258 84% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,031,523) Vertigo Games
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Landlord's Super older $19.99 1,442 80% 43k $865k (exactly $864,767) Minskworks
Arizona Sunshine® VR Remake $19.99 1,203 88% 36k $721k (exactly $721,439) Vertigo Games
SPRAWL zero $24.99 710 94% 21k $532k (exactly $532,287) MAETH
Machinika: Atlas $11.99 574 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,468) Littlefield Studio
They Killed Your Cat $6.99 883 75% 26k $185k (exactly $185,165) Vekaria
The Living Remain $19.99 289 79% 8.7k $173k (exactly $173,313) Five Finger Studios
CashGrab: Refunded · EA $6.99 206 87% 6.2k $43k (exactly $43,198) Grabba Guild Games LLC
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr
Jump the Track $9.99 79 96% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Seed by Seed
Nitroglycerine! $4.99 146 86% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Avoidance

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.