Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Physics

Only 12 developers shipped a Physics Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Creeper World IXE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 26 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $2.7k → $381k → $3.1k → $300
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,396)
Top 5% $513k (exactly $512,743)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 43
Announced 26
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Physics
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 69% positive over 1,068 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $810, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Creeper World 4 older $24.99 4,553 94% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) Knuckle Cracker
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks · EA older $29.99 1,000 65% 30k $900k (exactly $899,700) FunGi
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Supermarket & Internet Cafe Simulator older $14.99 847 79% 25k $381k (exactly $380,896) SmartPlayGames
Wooden Battles older $9.99 515 79% 15k $154k (exactly $154,346) SP Digital Arts Inc.
Axis Football 2024 older $19.99 207 71% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Axis Games
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Armored Front: Tiger Command · EA older $19.99 46 45% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) AutoRotate180
Axis Football 2027 $19.99 44 72% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Axis Games
Rise - The Vieneo Province older $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Unistellar Industries, LLC
Galactum Meridian · EA $19.99 14 14% 420 $8.4k (exactly $8,396) Hedra Games
Cargo Shop Simulator $3.99 27 70% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) Enginar Games
Scionide · EA $14.99 7 71% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) SYONIX
Trials Of Randoom $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Teion Games
Coaster Clash 2k99 - Roller Coaster Defense $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) D4Y
Reality Rifts $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Infinity Requiem Studio
The graveyard duty fall of the last demon · EA $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Faustina Mutamba

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.