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Should I ship a Physics Walking Simulator?
Physics + Walking Simulator
Of 148 developers who shipped a Physics Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×215 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 184 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $4.9k (exactly $4,900) |
| Top 5% | $135k (exactly $134,910) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 148 |
| Released games | 358 |
| Announced | 184 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Walking Simulator
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Walking Simulator; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Simulation
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 29,274 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Cairn 2026 · $16M 
Amnesia: The Dark Descent 2010 · $12M 
Viscera Cleanup Detail 2015 · $7.0M 
Octodad: Dadliest Catch 2014 · $4.1M 
Exo One 2021 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cairn | $29.99 | 18,224 94% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,396,133) | The Game Bakers | |
| | Amnesia: The Dark Descent | older | $19.99 | 20,420 95% | 613k | $12M (exactly $12,245,874) | Frictional Games |
| | Viscera Cleanup Detail | older | $12.99 | 18,053 92% | 542k | $7.0M (exactly $7,035,254) | RuneStorm |
| | Octodad: Dadliest Catch | older | $14.99 | 9,101 94% | 273k | $4.1M (exactly $4,092,720) | Young Horses |
| | Exo One | older | $16.99 | 5,053 89% | 152k | $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) | Exbleative |
 | Baby Steps | $19.99 | 2,355 90% | 71k | $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) | Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy | |
 | Junkyard Simulator | · EA older | $19.99 | 2,182 64% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Rebelia Games |
 | Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out | $7.99 | 3,490 85% | 105k | $837k (exactly $836,553) | Digital Melody | |
 | Sea of Solitude | older | $19.99 | 1,125 82% | 34k | $675k (exactly $674,662) | Jo-Mei Games |
 | Virtual Rides 3 - Funfair Simulator | older | $24.99 | 861 87% | 26k | $645k (exactly $645,492) | Pixelsplit Simulations |
 | despelote | $14.99 | 1,011 95% | 30k | $455k (exactly $454,647) | Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena | |
 | RATSHAKER™ | $2.99 | 3,011 92% | 90k | $270k (exactly $270,087) | Sunscorched Studios | |
 | Ambrosia Sky | $24.99 | 267 89% | 8.0k | $200k (exactly $200,170) | Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive | |
 | GlitchSPANKR | $19.99 | 275 96% | 8.3k | $165k (exactly $164,918) | Mahelyk, TheClassifiedX | |
 | A Merchant's Promise | · EA | $14.99 | 300 86% | 9.0k | $135k (exactly $134,910) | Game Draft Studio |
 | Road Maintenance Simulator 2 - Winter Services | $24.99 | 117 49% | 3.5k | $88k (exactly $87,715) | Caipirinha Games | |
 | Newton's Fourth Law | · EA | $11.99 | 224 93% | 6.7k | $81k (exactly $80,573) | Newtonian Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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