Do I ship it?

Games › Spectacle fighter › Spectacle fighter + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Physics

Of 42 developers who shipped a Physics Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 64 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 64 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $58k → $72k → $719 → $479 → $599 (still earning) → $168 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,539)
Top 5% $76k (exactly $75,745)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 99
Announced 64
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, 3D Fighter, Combat
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 51,720 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $75k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024 · $76M En Garde! 2023 · $2.5M Endorphin Vice 2022 · EA · $1.0M DAVIGO: VR vs. PC 2023 · EA · $900k Fight Crab 2020 · $448k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
En Garde! older $19.99 4,161 90% 125k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) Fireplace Games
Endorphin Vice · EA older $9.99 3,436 56% 103k $1.0M (exactly $1,029,769) Endorphin Studios
DAVIGO: VR vs. PC · EA older $24.99 1,200 84% 36k $900k (exactly $899,640) Davigo Studio
Fight Crab older $19.99 747 94% 22k $448k (exactly $447,976) Calappa Games
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
illWill older $19.99 279 91% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Slava Bushuev
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Grab and Guts older $29.99 87 94% 2.6k $78k (exactly $78,274) Galactic Geckon
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
GLUM · EA $12.49 78 64% 2.3k $29k (exactly $29,227) CinderCat Games
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
Tales Of Glory 3 : Fists of Legend $19.99 34 88% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) BlackTale Games
Steel Judgment · EA $9.99 37 100% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Gid Is Dead
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
Pattaya Simulator $8.99 22 90% 660 $5.9k (exactly $5,933) N-nic Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.