Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Physics game?

Physics + Sci-fi

Of 429 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 870 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×446 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 870 games are announced against 260 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 870 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 429
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $449 → $478 → $449 → $1.0k → $882 → $838 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 429
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,852)
Top 5% $280k (exactly $280,388)
Developers, 2 yr 429
Released games 1,250
Announced 870
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 376,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 202 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 870 games are announced against 260 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M Portal 2 2011 · $117M R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M Portal 2007 · $52M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Kerbal Space Program 2 · EA older $49.99 27,930 26% 838k $42M (exactly $41,886,621) Intercept Games
BONEWORKS older $29.99 34,141 92% 1.0M $31M (exactly $30,716,658) Stress Level Zero
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps
KILL IT WITH FIRE! 2 $14.99 1,431 93% 43k $644k (exactly $643,521) Casey Donnellan Games LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.