Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Physics

Of 113 developers who shipped a Physics Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 203 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×170 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 203 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 203 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 113
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $1.4k → $240 → $959 → $300 → $958 → $359 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 113
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $597 (exactly $597)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 5% $107k (exactly $106,993)
Developers, 2 yr 113
Released games 317
Announced 203
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,681 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 203 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HARD BULLET 2020 · EA · $3.5M VOID/BREAKER 2025 · EA · $2.3M Vox Machinae 2022 · $1.1M TRIBES 3: Rivals 2024 · EA · $794k IRON REBELLION 2024 · $579k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
TRIBES 3: Rivals · EA older $19.99 1,324 61% 40k $794k (exactly $794,003) Prophecy Games
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
SNKRX older $2.99 4,198 94% 126k $377k (exactly $376,561) a327ex
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
GOAT OF DUTY · EA older $9.99 548 89% 16k $164k (exactly $164,236) 34BigThings
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
Last Man Sitting $9.99 357 77% 11k $107k (exactly $106,993) DoubleMoose Games
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
Ironsand $7.49 142 68% 4.3k $32k (exactly $31,907) Renderise
Deadliest Pigeon $6.99 99 93% 3.0k $21k (exactly $20,760) Rusty Rex
Finnish Cabin Mayhem - Mökkimähinä $4.99 129 94% 3.9k $19k (exactly $19,311) Sophisticated keppana enjoyers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.