Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Time Manipulation game?

Physics + Time Manipulation

Of 48 developers who shipped a Physics Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $880, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×90 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 73 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 73 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $539 → $899 → $750 → $599 → $7.2k → $479 (still earning) → $234 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $882 (exactly $882)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $56,681)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 169
Announced 73
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Time Manipulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $880, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phantom Brigade 2023 · $4.0M The Entropy Centre 2022 · $2.0M Braid, Anniversary Edition 2024 · $1.1M No Time 2019 · EA · $825k Gravity Field 2023 · $700k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
The Entropy Centre older $19.99 3,359 89% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) Stubby Games
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
Gravity Field older $29.99 778 79% 23k $700k (exactly $699,967) Kazakov Studios
Shadwen older $16.99 1,049 77% 31k $535k (exactly $534,675) Frozenbyte
Quantum Conundrum older $8.99 1,758 84% 53k $474k (exactly $474,133) Airtight Games
Metro Simulator 2 older $14.99 674 65% 20k $303k (exactly $303,098) KishMish Games
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Time Flies $14.99 370 96% 11k $166k (exactly $166,389) Playables
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Orbyss $14.99 68 95% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Misty Whale
Coconut Simulator $0.99 735 96% 22k $22k (exactly $21,830) Dynamic Games
Coconut Simulator 2 $0.99 621 96% 19k $18k (exactly $18,444) Dynamic Games
A Pinball Game That Makes You Mad $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Azimuth Studios
Typhon: Bot vs Bot · EA $19.99 12 75% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Brightshade Games
Accretion $9.99 21 38% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) ValarFerys
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.