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Should I ship a Physics God Game?
God Game + Physics
Of 34 developers who shipped a Physics God Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $91k, ×145 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 55 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $809 (exactly $809) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,473) |
| Top 5% | $91k (exactly $91,222) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 34 |
| Released games | 115 |
| Announced | 55 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- God Game, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Management
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Minimalist
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 3,537 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
God Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + HistoricalFair
- + EconomyFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + DestructionFair
- + DystopianFair
- + IdlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Farming SimLong shot
- + AgricultureLong shot
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Universe Sandbox | · EA older | $29.99 | 27,843 96% | 835k | $25M (exactly $25,050,347) | Giant Army |
| | From Dust | older | $14.99 | 2,803 67% | 84k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,509) | Ubisoft Montpellier |
| | Megaton Rainfall | older | $15.99 | 2,155 71% | 65k | $1.0M (exactly $1,033,754) | Pentadimensional Games, SL |
| | Marble World | older | $19.99 | 1,268 89% | 38k | $760k (exactly $760,420) | Vector Interactive |
| | Solar 2 | older | $9.99 | 1,574 91% | 47k | $472k (exactly $471,728) | Murudai |
| | Paper Beast | older | $19.99 | 529 94% | 16k | $317k (exactly $317,241) | Pixel Reef |
| | GolfTopia | older | $19.99 | 477 95% | 14k | $286k (exactly $286,057) | MinMax Games Ltd. |
| | Creature Crafter | older | $7.99 | 745 86% | 22k | $179k (exactly $178,576) | Daniel Lochner |
| | Terra Firma 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 200 92% | 6.0k | $120k (exactly $119,940) | Working as Intended |
| | Paper Beast - Folded Edition | older | $16.99 | 195 85% | 5.9k | $99k (exactly $99,391) | Pixel Reef |
| | 拖拖拉拉小菲镇 | $1.99 | 1,528 98% | 46k | $91k (exactly $91,222) | LuzhangGames | |
| | ANLIFE: Motion-Learning Life Evolution | $13.99 | 161 83% | 4.8k | $68k (exactly $67,572) | Attructure Inc. | |
| | Global Magnates: Shipping Tycoon | $12.99 | 116 64% | 3.5k | $45k (exactly $45,205) | Aquila Chengdu | |
| | Genesis of a Small God | $17.99 | 61 80% | 1.8k | $33k (exactly $32,922) | Pierre Nury | |
| | Sandboxels | $0.99 | 1,108 94% | 33k | $33k (exactly $32,908) | R74n | |
| | Nuclear Design Bureau | · EA | $9.99 | 88 79% | 2.6k | $26k (exactly $26,374) | Design Bureau KB-11 |
| | Desktop Fishes | $5.99 | 128 82% | 3.8k | $23k (exactly $23,002) | Daniel Santalla | |
| | Hideko | $4.99 | 90 97% | 2.7k | $13k (exactly $13,473) | Sokpop Collective | |
| | Inspiral: Echoes of Gravity | $3.99 | 57 73% | 1.7k | $6.8k (exactly $6,823) | PcZ Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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