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Should I ship a Music Physics game?
Physics + Music
Of 27 developers who shipped a Music Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×236 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $208 (exactly $208) |
|---|---|
| Median | $629 (exactly $629) |
| Top 25% | $5.1k (exactly $5,066) |
| Top 5% | $148k (exactly $148,008) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 99 |
| Announced | 37 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,109 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. Nearly all of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Donut County 2018 · $4.3M 
Rising Star 2 2020 · $402k 
Mr. Sleepy Man 2026 · $381k 
Starstruck: Hands of Time 2024 · $154k 
Star Overdrive 2025 · $148k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Donut County | older | $12.99 | 11,038 91% | 331k | $4.3M (exactly $4,301,509) | Ben Esposito |
| | Rising Star 2 | older | $19.99 | 670 94% | 20k | $402k (exactly $401,799) | Gilligames |
| | Mr. Sleepy Man | $19.99 | 636 98% | 19k | $381k (exactly $381,409) | Devin Santi | |
| | Starstruck: Hands of Time | older | $19.99 | 256 92% | 7.7k | $154k (exactly $153,523) | Createdelic, LLC |
| | Star Overdrive | $34.99 | 141 87% | 4.2k | $148k (exactly $148,008) | Caracal Games | |
 | Magic Tiny Lands | $29.99 | 86 90% | 2.6k | $77k (exactly $77,374) | Galactic Geckon | |
 | Barton Lynch Pro Surfing | older | $49.99 | 51 84% | 1.5k | $76k (exactly $76,485) | Bungarra Software Pty Ltd |
 | Ynglet | older | $7.99 | 303 98% | 9.1k | $73k (exactly $72,629) | Nifflas |
 | Mushroom 11 | older | $14.99 | 140 89% | 4.2k | $63k (exactly $62,958) | Untame |
 | Fruit Ninja VR 2 | older | $24.99 | 74 75% | 2.2k | $55k (exactly $55,478) | Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd |
 | Infected Mushroom Pinball | · EA | $19.99 | 83 68% | 2.5k | $50k (exactly $49,775) | RAYWORKS |
 | Electro Bop Boxing League | $14.99 | 84 79% | 2.5k | $38k (exactly $37,775) | Developer Dob | |
 | A Pinball Game That Makes You Mad | $9.99 | 27 81% | 810 | $8.1k (exactly $8,092) | Azimuth Studios | |
 | Pop! Pachinko | $12.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $5.1k (exactly $5,066) | Pangolin Interactive, Robot Lion Games | |
 | Unpatterned Cut | $9.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Vnow Games | |
 | Bass Defense - Rhythm Meets Strategy | $5.99 | 17 100% | 510 | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) | WOMBEX Games | |
 | Knights of the Round Peg | $11.99 | 8 62% | 240 | $2.9k (exactly $2,878) | Boomzap Inc |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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