Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Physics

Of 542 developers who shipped a Physics Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 911 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×501 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 911 games are announced against 292 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 911 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 542
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $2.6k → $718 → $748 → $891 → $897 → $600 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 542
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $750 (exactly $750)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,988)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $314,321)
Developers, 2 yr 542
Released games 1,334
Announced 911
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 88,661 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 306 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 911 games are announced against 292 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO $49.99 50,395 86% 1.5M $76M (exactly $75,577,382) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Party Animals older $19.99 56,043 81% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,608,987) Recreate Games
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Goat Simulator 3 older $29.99 13,779 97% 413k $12M (exactly $12,396,966) Coffee Stain North
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Cloudheim · EA $29.99 1,819 81% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,554) Noodle Cat Games
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.