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Should I ship a Mars Physics game?
Physics + Mars
Only 9 developers shipped a Mars Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mars First Logistics, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3339 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $718 (exactly $718) |
| Top 25% | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) |
| Top 5% | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 39 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 14,077 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Mars First Logistics 2025 · $2.1M 
Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered 2018 · $2.0M 
Mars Horizon 2020 · $1.7M 
Red Faction®: Armageddon™ 2011 · $1.6M 
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder 2025 · $268k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
| | Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered | older | $19.99 | 3,385 79% | 102k | $2.0M (exactly $2,029,984) | Volition, KAIKO |
| | Mars Horizon | older | $19.99 | 2,757 84% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) | Auroch Digital |
| | Red Faction®: Armageddon™ | older | $19.99 | 2,615 70% | 78k | $1.6M (exactly $1,568,215) | Volition |
| | Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder | $11.99 | 744 69% | 22k | $268k (exactly $267,617) | Tinymice Entertainment | |
 | Pinball FX Classic VR | older | $14.99 | 376 84% | 11k | $169k (exactly $169,087) | Zen Studios |
 | Relicta | older | $19.99 | 234 76% | 7.0k | $140k (exactly $140,330) | Mighty Polygon |
 | Gaia Beyond | older | $14.99 | 240 73% | 7.2k | $108k (exactly $107,928) | Warp Turtle |
 | Space Mechanic Simulator | older | $19.99 | 115 60% | 3.5k | $69k (exactly $68,966) | Atomic Jelly |
 | OVERVIEW (A Walk Through The Universe) | older | $9.99 | 114 71% | 3.4k | $34k (exactly $34,166) | Orbital Views |
 | Scionide | · EA | $14.99 | 7 71% | 210 | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) | SYONIX |
 | debris | $9.99 | 6 16% | 180 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | Evar Space | |
 | Gravity Cab | $3.99 | 6 83% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | Tamas Kincses | |
 | Critical Descent | $9.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $599 (exactly $599) | Endless Abyss Games | |
 | Planet Strike | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | DanboruStudio | |
 | Area51 | $5.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Jon Fabris | |
 | Funorbit | · EA | $5.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Aeroenix |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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