Do I ship it?

Games › Action RPG › Action RPG + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Action RPG?

Action RPG + Physics

Of 65 developers who shipped a Physics Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 150 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 150 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 185% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 150 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $3.8k → $1.8k → $299 → $446 → $719 → $449 (still earning) → $3.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,795)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 190
Announced 150
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG, Physics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 43,308 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 150 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M Fatekeeper 2026 · EA · $3.2M Hellsplit: Arena 2019 · $2.8M The Bloodline 2023 · EA · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
The Bloodline · EA older $19.99 3,769 82% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,260,269) Shieldbearer Studios
Cloudheim · EA $29.99 1,819 81% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,554) Noodle Cat Games
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Swordsman VR older $19.99 651 68% 20k $390k (exactly $390,405) Sinn Studio Inc.
Z.O.N.A: Origin $19.99 540 83% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) AGaming+
The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot $9.99 999 98% 30k $299k (exactly $299,400) Stéphane Le Roy
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
Tavern Legends $24.99 160 91% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) CROWFORGE Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.