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Should I ship a Mythological Physics game?
Physics + Mythology
Of 24 developers who shipped a Mythological Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $58k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 59 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $479 (exactly $479) |
| Top 25% | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) |
| Top 5% | $59k (exactly $58,773) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 69 |
| Announced | 59 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Platformer, Action Roguelike
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Difficult, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,911 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Twin Shot Deluxe 2026 · $350k 
Eye of the Temple 2021 · $235k 
The Game of Sisyphus 2024 · $155k 
Munin 2014 · $138k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Twin Shot Deluxe | $9.99 | 1,167 95% | 35k | $350k (exactly $349,750) | Nitrome Limited | |
| | Eye of the Temple | older | $19.99 | 392 92% | 12k | $235k (exactly $235,082) | Rune Skovbo Johansen |
| | The Game of Sisyphus | older | $6.99 | 741 79% | 22k | $155k (exactly $155,388) | cream |
| | Munin | older | $4.99 | 925 82% | 28k | $138k (exactly $138,472) | Gojira |
 | Pushing it! Together - Sisyphus Co-op | $3.99 | 491 48% | 15k | $59k (exactly $58,773) | Bashir "ManliestDev" Kashalo,… (Bashir "ManliestDev" Kashalo, Blind Archer) | |
 | Tobla - Divine Path | older | $7.99 | 205 92% | 6.2k | $49k (exactly $49,138) | Nementic Games |
 | Escape from Naraka | older | $14.99 | 97 76% | 2.9k | $44k (exactly $43,621) | XeloGames |
 | BlackForge: A Smithing Adventure | older | $19.99 | 46 58% | 1.4k | $28k (exactly $27,586) | Mana Brigade |
 | Dive The Depths | $9.99 | 87 72% | 2.6k | $26k (exactly $26,074) | Frizuo, Starpixel Studios | |
 | Steel Judgment | · EA | $9.99 | 37 100% | 1.1k | $11k (exactly $11,089) | Gid Is Dead |
 | Knock on Fate：The Guardian Pusher | $5.99 | 58 87% | 1.7k | $10k (exactly $10,423) | 刚正面的红领巾 | |
 | Arrows and Antiquity | $4.99 | 16 87% | 480 | $2.4k (exactly $2,395) | True Neutral Studios | |
 | 卜卦 / Divination | $0.99 | 40 85% | 1.2k | $1.2k (exactly $1,188) | Honglizi | |
 | Tammuz: Blood & Sand | $19.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | Bad GOAT Studio, Clover Bite | |
 | Spear Leap Saga | $4.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Edern Wyss | |
 | Fumpers: Dual Realms | $1.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $597 (exactly $597) | Fırat Kurt, KurtSoft |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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