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Should I ship a Physics Choices Matter game?
Physics + Choices Matter
Of 162 developers who shipped a Physics Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×168 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 260 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $4.1k (exactly $4,075) |
| Top 5% | $105k (exactly $105,392) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 162 |
| Released games | 348 |
| Announced | 260 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 11,653 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 68 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Gas Station Simulator 2021 · $14M 
X-Plane 12 2022 · $11M 
Chained Together 2024 · $8.2M 
HighFleet 2021 · $6.3M 
Poly Bridge 2016 · $5.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Gas Station Simulator | older | $19.99 | 23,839 88% | 715k | $14M (exactly $14,296,248) | DRAGO entertainment |
| | X-Plane 12 | older | $59.99 | 6,318 86% | 190k | $11M (exactly $11,370,505) | Laminar Research |
| | Chained Together | older | $4.99 | 54,747 89% | 1.6M | $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) | Anegar Games, Lab42 |
| | HighFleet | older | $29.99 | 7,024 88% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) | Konstantin Koshutin |
| | Poly Bridge | older | $9.99 | 17,107 91% | 513k | $5.1M (exactly $5,126,968) | Dry Cactus |
 | Poly Bridge 2 | older | $14.99 | 7,875 95% | 236k | $3.5M (exactly $3,541,388) | Dry Cactus |
 | Mars Horizon | older | $19.99 | 2,757 84% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) | Auroch Digital |
 | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
 | The RPG | $14.99 | 769 86% | 23k | $346k (exactly $345,819) | Dionysus Acroreites | |
 | GlitchSPANKR | $19.99 | 275 96% | 8.3k | $165k (exactly $164,918) | Mahelyk, TheClassifiedX | |
 | Lake of Creatures | $12.49 | 354 92% | 11k | $133k (exactly $132,644) | ANTENNA GAMES | |
 | LOVE Hotel Simulator 🏩 | $14.99 | 241 70% | 7.2k | $108k (exactly $108,378) | Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀 | |
 | Carpet Cleaning Simulator | $6.99 | 508 87% | 15k | $107k (exactly $106,528) | daimaGAME | |
 | Content King | $11.99 | 293 95% | 8.8k | $105k (exactly $105,392) | Usurper Studios | |
 | Pro Jank Footy | $14.99 | 215 80% | 6.5k | $97k (exactly $96,686) | Powerbomb Games, Tinker Town |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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