Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim?

Farming Sim

Of 672 developers who shipped a Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,189 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1576 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,189 games are announced against 399 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,189 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 672
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $4.4k → $5.9k → $2.3k → $5.4k → $2.7k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 672
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,823)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 672
Released games 1,516
Announced 1,189
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 177,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 337 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,189 games are announced against 399 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Farming Sim

103 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Farming Sim + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $4.8k 17 devs
  2. Management + Farming Sim Poor odds $4.7k 252 devs
  3. Collectathon + Farming Sim Poor odds $4.3k 76 devs
  4. Farming Sim + Cats Poor odds $4.2k 32 devs
  5. Choices Matter + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.9k 20 devs
  6. Economy + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.6k 137 devs
  7. Creature Collector + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.6k 99 devs
  8. Survival + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.6k 85 devs
  9. Action RPG + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.6k 30 devs
  10. Farming Sim + Deckbuilding Poor odds $3.6k 16 devs
  11. Adventure + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.4k 169 devs
  12. Farming Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.4k 20 devs
  13. Farming Sim + Trading Poor odds $3.3k 41 devs
  14. City Builder + Farming Sim Poor odds $3.3k 70 devs
  15. Farming Sim + Desktop Companion Poor odds $3.3k 36 devs
  16. Farming Sim + Medieval Poor odds $3.1k 45 devs
  17. Simulation + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.7k 533 devs
  18. Farming Sim + Resource Management Poor odds $2.4k 220 devs
  19. Strategy + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.4k 167 devs
  20. Automation + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.4k 137 devs
  21. Real Time Tactics + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.4k 9 devs
  22. Farming Sim + Nature Poor odds $2.4k 178 devs
  23. Action + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.4k 77 devs
  24. FPS + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.3k 12 devs
  25. Agriculture + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.3k 208 devs
  26. Farming Sim + Time Management Poor odds $2.2k 96 devs
  27. Farming Sim + Logic Poor odds $2.2k 15 devs
  28. Combat + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.2k 29 devs
  29. Farming Sim + Animals Poor odds $2.1k 21 devs
  30. Physics + Farming Sim Poor odds $2.1k 41 devs
  31. Farming Sim + Inventory Management Poor odds $1.5k 59 devs
  32. Loot + Farming Sim Poor odds $1.5k 12 devs
  33. PvE + Farming Sim Poor odds $1.5k 25 devs
  34. Farming Sim + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $1.2k 23 devs
  35. Racing + Farming Sim Poor odds $1.1k 14 devs
  36. Strategy RPG + Farming Sim Poor odds $987 15 devs
  37. Farming Sim + Tower Defense Poor odds $897 17 devs
  38. Farming Sim + Arcade Poor odds $891 28 devs
  39. Farming Sim + Multiple Endings Poor odds $839 29 devs
  40. 3D Platformer + Farming Sim Poor odds $748 25 devs
  41. Farming Sim + Hidden Object Poor odds $748 15 devs
  42. Shooter + Farming Sim Poor odds $659 12 devs
  43. Farming Sim + Walking Simulator Poor odds $599 11 devs
  44. Farming Sim + Point & Click Poor odds $538 42 devs
  45. Action Roguelike + Farming Sim Poor odds $359 20 devs
  46. Farming Sim + Space Poor odds $300 15 devs
  47. Hunting + Farming Sim Dead $29k 8 devs
  48. Sports + Farming Sim Dead $3.9k 9 devs
  49. Driving + Farming Sim Dead $3.1k 7 devs
  50. CRPG + Farming Sim Dead $1.5k 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition 2020 · $42M Farming Simulator 22 2021 · $42M Timberborn 2026 · $40M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.