Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Farming Sim?

Combat + Farming Sim

Of 29 developers who shipped a Combat Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1315 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 77 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 77 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $1.8k → $4.0k → $63k → $2.4k → $1.4k → $24k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,100)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,714)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 70
Announced 77
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Farming Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Crafting, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,775 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sun Haven 2023 · $17M Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin 2020 · $4.5M Kynseed 2022 · $2.6M Rune Factory 5 2022 · $2.3M Atomicrops 2020 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Kitaria Fables older $19.99 1,253 73% 38k $751k (exactly $751,424) Twin Hearts, Secret Level Studios
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Oppidum $29.99 161 67% 4.8k $145k (exactly $144,852) EP Games®
Weed Shop 4: Highland · EA $19.99 205 52% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Weed Games
Farmagia $49.99 63 46% 1.9k $94k (exactly $94,481) Marvelous Inc.
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Touhou Farming ~ Minoriko's Homestead Harvest · EA $11.99 67 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $24,100) Studio Hexeye
Besmirch · EA $9.99 79 97% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Gangru Games
The Colony 2044 · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Nexrage Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.