Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Survival game?

Survival + Farming Sim

Of 85 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 141 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3830 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 141 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 141 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $3.1k → $24k → $7.8k → $29k → $1.6k → $3.4k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $535 (exactly $535)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $100,543)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 177
Announced 141
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Farming Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Base Building, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 69,342 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 141 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Atomicrops older $14.99 5,134 93% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) Bird Bath Games
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.