Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsFarming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim?

Farming Sim

Of 672 developers who shipped a Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,189 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×4.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1576 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,189 games are announced against 399 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,189 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 672
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $4.4k → $5.9k → $2.3k → $5.4k → $2.7k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 672
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,823)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 672
Released games 1,516
Announced 1,189
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 177,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 337 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,189 games are announced against 399 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Farming Sim

22 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Farming Sim + Dogs Fair $4.1k 18 devs
  2. Farming Sim + Artificial Intelligence Fair $718 17 devs
  3. Farming Sim + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $146k 10 devs
  4. Farming Sim + Psychological Horror Poor odds $111k 11 devs
  5. Farming Sim + Horses Poor odds $70k 14 devs
  6. Farming Sim + Historical Poor odds $24k 15 devs
  7. Farming Sim + Romance Poor odds $24k 32 devs
  8. Farming Sim + Capitalism Poor odds $19k 44 devs
  9. Farming Sim + Mystery Poor odds $15k 16 devs
  10. Farming Sim + Female Protagonist Poor odds $12k 27 devs
  11. Farming Sim + Magic Poor odds $12k 33 devs
  12. Farming Sim + Horror Poor odds $10k 22 devs
  13. Farming Sim + Fantasy Poor odds $8.1k 89 devs
  14. Farming Sim + Farming Poor odds $7.5k 93 devs
  15. Farming Sim + Underwater Poor odds $6.4k 13 devs
  16. Farming Sim + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $4.8k 17 devs
  17. Farming Sim + Cats Poor odds $4.2k 32 devs
  18. Farming Sim + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.4k 20 devs
  19. Farming Sim + Medieval Poor odds $3.1k 45 devs
  20. Farming Sim + Nature Poor odds $2.4k 178 devs
  21. Farming Sim + Animals Poor odds $2.1k 21 devs
  22. Farming Sim + Space Poor odds $300 15 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.