Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Space

Only 15 developers shipped a Space Farming Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, One Lonely Outpost, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $28k → $3.9k
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $324k (exactly $323,838)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 29
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Building, Crafting, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 742 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Little-Known Galaxy older $19.99 679 88% 20k $407k (exactly $407,196) Carbon & Kay
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
Deiland: Pocket Planet older $14.99 132 68% 4.0k $59k (exactly $59,360) Chibig
Galactic Getaway: Build a Home for Pets · EA $14.99 62 61% 1.9k $28k (exactly $27,881) Akrew
Mars Base older $19.99 37 51% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) Khuong Le
XenoHaven · EA $9.99 51 80% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Miniverse Game
Epic Astro Story older $8.99 44 84% 1.3k $12k (exactly $11,867) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Kairobotica older $8.99 42 73% 1.3k $11k (exactly $11,327) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
No Ticket Back: Craft, Survive & Escape $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) GameEraStudios
AstroPlanet $3.99 39 64% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) VIVA
Plantasia $4.99 26 84% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Cave Bear Games
Astral Outcast · EA $12.99 4 100% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) StarMight Games
Laika Space Adventure $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Temirlan Yergazy
Space Guild $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Recoil Mojo
Space Chickens $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Tabsil

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.