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Should I ship a Farming Sim Simulation game?
Simulation + Farming Sim
Of 533 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 924 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1399 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 924 games are announced against 311 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,686) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $35,526) |
| Top 5% | $879k (exactly $878,632) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 533 |
| Released games | 1,198 |
| Announced | 924 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Farming Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Farming Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Life Sim, Building, Crafting
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 178,892 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 270 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 924 games are announced against 311 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Stardew Valley 2016 · $402M 
DAVE THE DIVER 2023 · $86M 
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition 2020 · $42M 
Farming Simulator 22 2021 · $42M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stardew Valley | older | $14.99 | 894,201 98% | 27M | $402M (exactly $402,122,190) | ConcernedApe |
| | DAVE THE DIVER | older | $19.99 | 142,662 96% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $85,554,401) | MINTROCKET |
| | Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition | older | $29.99 | 47,176 94% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,444,247) | Thunder Lotus |
| | Farming Simulator 22 | older | $19.99 | 69,477 93% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $41,665,357) | GIANTS Software |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Farming Simulator 25 | $29.99 | 39,681 87% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,700,996) | GIANTS Software | |
 | Farming Simulator 19 | older | $17.99 | 64,621 94% | 1.9M | $35M (exactly $34,875,954) | GIANTS Software |
 | My Time at Portia | older | $29.99 | 34,844 91% | 1.0M | $31M (exactly $31,349,147) | Pathea Games |
 | Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm | older | $24.99 | 40,862 79% | 1.2M | $31M (exactly $30,634,241) | Toxic Dog |
 | My Time at Sandrock | older | $39.99 | 24,110 88% | 723k | $29M (exactly $28,924,767) | Pathea Games |
 | Dinkum | $19.99 | 24,641 92% | 739k | $15M (exactly $14,777,208) | James Bendon | |
 | Fields of Mistria | $13.99 | 31,918 96% | 958k | $13M (exactly $13,395,985) | NPC Studio | |
 | Starsand Island | $39.99 | 5,898 76% | 177k | $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) | Seed Sparkle Lab | |
 | Little Witch in the Woods | $19.99 | 11,691 89% | 351k | $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) | SUNNY SIDE UP | |
 | The Wandering Village | $29.99 | 7,734 91% | 232k | $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | Luma Island | $19.99 | 11,204 84% | 336k | $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) | Feel Free Games | |
 | STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar | $49.99 | 3,140 93% | 94k | $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | Farm Together 2 | $25.99 | 4,456 93% | 134k | $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) | Milkstone Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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