Do I ship it?

Games › Farming Sim › Farming Sim + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Medieval

Of 45 developers who shipped a Medieval Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×811 the market median. Revenue is up 2200% on the market; 83 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 2200% on the market, 83 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.8k → $3.9k → $3.1k → $22k → $2.7k → $12k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,526)
Top 5% $385k (exactly $385,346)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 90
Announced 83
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2200% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,876 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022 · $23M Travellers Rest 2020 · EA · $8.9M Ostriv 2020 · EA · $5.1M Clanfolk 2022 · EA · $3.4M Mirthwood 2024 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Chinese Frontiers $24.99 514 72% 15k $385k (exactly $385,346) SolidGames
Viking Frontiers $19.99 537 51% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment
Goblin Nest $6.99 1,177 93% 35k $247k (exactly $246,817) BadColor
Of Life and Land $24.99 288 82% 8.6k $216k (exactly $215,914) Kerzoven
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games
Medieval Horse Dealer Simulator $17.99 193 89% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) One Slice of Pizza Games
Dungeon Bodega Simulator $9.99 320 98% 9.6k $96k (exactly $95,904) Alien Fruit
Ancient Farm $14.99 155 55% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) A2 Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.