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Should I ship a Physics Farming Sim?
Physics + Farming Sim
Of 41 developers who shipped a Physics Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3290 the market median. Revenue is up 525% on the market; 60 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $659 (exactly $659) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,063) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $16,617) |
| Top 5% | $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 73 |
| Announced | 60 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 525% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Farming Sim
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Farming Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Life Sim
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 94,584 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $660. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Timberborn 2026 · $40M 
Farming Simulator 25 2024 · $36M 
Farming Simulator 15 2014 · $5.2M 
Out of Ore 2022 · $3.0M 
Berry Bury Berry 2026 · $2.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
| | Farming Simulator 25 | $29.99 | 39,681 87% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,700,996) | GIANTS Software | |
| | Farming Simulator 15 | older | $12.99 | 13,306 92% | 399k | $5.2M (exactly $5,185,348) | GIANTS Software |
| | Out of Ore | older | $24.99 | 3,978 85% | 119k | $3.0M (exactly $2,982,307) | North Modding Company AB |
| | Berry Bury Berry | $7.99 | 8,619 98% | 259k | $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) | Get(Color) Games | |
 | MineMogul | · EA | $14.99 | 4,330 96% | 130k | $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) | NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder) |
 | Farming Simulator 2013: Titanium Edition | older | $14.99 | 3,926 91% | 118k | $1.8M (exactly $1,765,522) | GIANTS Software |
 | Lawn Mowing Simulator | older | $19.99 | 2,126 74% | 64k | $1.3M (exactly $1,274,962) | Skyhook Games |
 | Cozy Island | $8.99 | 2,454 92% | 74k | $662k (exactly $661,844) | LazyFish Studio | |
 | My Recycling Center | older | $14.99 | 626 69% | 19k | $282k (exactly $281,512) | Darius Bode |
 | Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator | $14.99 | 390 95% | 12k | $175k (exactly $175,383) | BitBros Inc | |
 | Dungeon Bodega Simulator | $9.99 | 320 98% | 9.6k | $96k (exactly $95,904) | Alien Fruit | |
 | Lawn Care Simulator | $19.99 | 67 91% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $40,180) | Zac Marvin, Edward DePew | |
 | Hillshade Farm | · EA | $19.50 | 66 62% | 2.0k | $39k (exactly $38,610) | NORTHSTAR Games |
 | Desktop Fishes | $5.99 | 128 82% | 3.8k | $23k (exactly $23,002) | Daniel Santalla |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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