Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Nature

Of 178 developers who shipped a Nature Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 339 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×3070 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 339 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 339 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 178
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $7.2k → $5.9k → $3.1k → $2.5k → $3.5k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 178
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,124)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377)
Developers, 2 yr 178
Released games 369
Announced 339
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 113,307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 339 games are announced against 102 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of The Rings™ Game $34.99 3,237 81% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,397,879) Wētā Workshop
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.