Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Adventure game?

Adventure + Farming Sim

Of 169 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 357 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×1933 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 357 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 357 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 169
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $33k → $24k → $4.8k → $3.9k → $4.7k → $1.8k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 169
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,409)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,034)
Top 5% $918k (exactly $918,382)
Developers, 2 yr 169
Released games 398
Announced 357
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 71,075 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 109 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 357 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Travellers Rest · EA older $17.99 16,538 87% 496k $8.9M (exactly $8,925,559) Isolated Games
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Village in the Shade $49.99 552 91% 17k $828k (exactly $827,834) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.