Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Strategy game?

Strategy + Farming Sim

Of 167 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 221 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×604 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 221 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 221 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $3.8k → $6.5k → $1.5k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,978)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $379,348)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 389
Announced 221
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 64,429 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 221 games are announced against 101 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 17 older $14.99 23,063 93% 692k $10M (exactly $10,371,431) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 15 older $12.99 13,306 92% 399k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,348) GIANTS Software
Ostriv · EA older $24.99 6,866 94% 206k $5.1M (exactly $5,147,440) yevhen8
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Weed Shop 3 older $19.99 3,956 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,413) Weed Games
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
Havendock $19.99 1,504 81% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) YYZ Studio
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.