Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Only 17 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Farming Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Timberborn, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $40M, ×64401 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 32 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 32 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $101k → $4.8k → $22k → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650)
Top 5% $40M (exactly $40,443,891)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 32
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 58,536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $1.8M, 1 in 20 over $40M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Floodland older $19.99 921 54% 28k $552k (exactly $552,324) Vile Monarch
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
Robert on Earth $7.99 93 83% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,292) Remrofsnart
No Ticket Back: Craft, Survive & Escape $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) GameEraStudios
Can't Stop Rory $7.99 6 50% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Confused Grandma Games, Zero Point One… (Confused Grandma Games, Zero Point One Games)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.