Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Farming Sim

Of 208 developers who shipped a Farming Sim Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 359 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×1436 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 359 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 359 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 208
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $13k → $8.6k → $2.9k → $6.3k → $4.4k → $2.3k (still earning) → $750 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 208
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,206)
Top 5% $902k (exactly $901,949)
Developers, 2 yr 208
Released games 557
Announced 359
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Farming Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Sandbox, Building
Price point
$8.50 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.50.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 83,918 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 102 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 359 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
DAVE THE DIVER older $19.99 142,662 96% 4.3M $86M (exactly $85,554,401) MINTROCKET
Farming Simulator 22 older $19.99 69,477 93% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,665,357) GIANTS Software
Farming Simulator 19 older $17.99 64,621 94% 1.9M $35M (exactly $34,875,954) GIANTS Software
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
The Ranch of Rivershine $29.99 2,050 94% 62k $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) Cozy Bee Games
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.