Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Farming Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Sim Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Farming Sim

Only 15 developers shipped a Farming Sim Strategy RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Farmagia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $94k, ×150 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Farming Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.8k → $5.4k → $2.3k → $90 → $987 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Farming Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $446 (exactly $446)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,471)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,481)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 39
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Farming Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 684 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $990, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Farmagia $49.99 63 46% 1.9k $94k (exactly $94,481) Marvelous Inc.
汉尘:腐草为萤 · EA $7.99 305 71% 9.2k $73k (exactly $73,108) 兰廷科技 Lanting Technology Co., Ltd.
Brocula older $19.99 87 43% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) Destroyer Doggo
Sons Of The Dream Forest · EA older $4.99 318 9% 9.5k $48k (exactly $47,605) SimulatorLife
The Headlands · EA $10.99 107 97% 3.2k $35k (exactly $35,278) TessaraOxygen
极乐不羡仙 $5.99 164 65% 4.9k $29k (exactly $29,471) 仙常居ソフト
Beastie Bay DX older $8.99 98 70% 2.9k $26k (exactly $26,431) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
古代风流传 older $1.45 499 72% 15k $22k (exactly $21,706) Turtle game
電視夢工場 $3.99 19 52% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) T-Time Technology CO., LTD.
Soukh · EA $10.99 5 80% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) Noctis Tide Studios
CropChampion $9.99 5 60% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) CropChampion
Auction House $2.99 11 63% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Recoil Mojo
The Farming Frontier $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Cuneyt Aliustaoglu
Little Library $5.99 3 33% 90 $539 (exactly $539) BitQuest Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.