Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › 4X

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4X?

4X

Of 166 developers who shipped a 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 357 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2423 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 357 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 357 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 166
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $18k → $32k → $5.3k → $3.9k → $3.4k → $13k (still earning) → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 166
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $71,940)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292)
Developers, 2 yr 166
Released games 650
Announced 357
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 160,363 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 357 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with 4X

52 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. 4X + Combat Fair $3.8k 32 devs
  2. 4X + Colony Sim Poor odds $314k 23 devs
  3. 4X + Sandbox Poor odds $193k 36 devs
  4. 4X + Turn-Based Poor odds $193k 16 devs
  5. 4X + Diplomacy Poor odds $86k 29 devs
  6. 4X + Survival Poor odds $72k 21 devs
  7. 4X + RPG Poor odds $54k 26 devs
  8. 4X + Building Poor odds $34k 52 devs
  9. 4X + Real-Time with Pause Poor odds $34k 8 devs
  10. 4X + Strategy RPG Poor odds $31k 15 devs
  11. 4X + City Builder Poor odds $29k 43 devs
  12. 4X + Base Building Poor odds $24k 48 devs
  13. 4X + Grand Strategy Poor odds $17k 81 devs
  14. 4X + Economy Poor odds $17k 61 devs
  15. 4X + Management Poor odds $17k 73 devs
  16. Open World + 4X Poor odds $15k 17 devs
  17. 4X + Roguelike Poor odds $15k 11 devs
  18. 4X + Resource Management Poor odds $14k 65 devs
  19. 4X + RTS Poor odds $14k 33 devs
  20. 4X + Political Sim Poor odds $12k 29 devs
  21. 4X + Wargame Poor odds $10k 60 devs
  22. 4X + Co-op Poor odds $10k 15 devs
  23. 4X + Board Game Poor odds $10k 12 devs
  24. 4X + Hex Grid Poor odds $9.9k 26 devs
  25. 4X + Simulation Poor odds $9.0k 92 devs
  26. 4X + Exploration Poor odds $9.0k 40 devs
  27. 4X + Tactical Poor odds $7.6k 54 devs
  28. PvP + 4X Poor odds $7.5k 26 devs
  29. 4X + Strategy Poor odds $7.2k 155 devs
  30. 4X + Action RTS Poor odds $7.2k 10 devs
  31. 4X + Real Time Tactics Poor odds $6.4k 33 devs
  32. 4X + Action Poor odds $6.4k 14 devs
  33. 4X + Character Customization Poor odds $6.3k 9 devs
  34. 4X + Turn-Based Strategy Poor odds $5.4k 75 devs
  35. 4X + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $5.4k 39 devs
  36. 4X + Choices Matter Poor odds $5.4k 21 devs
  37. 4X + Space Sim Poor odds $4.0k 13 devs
  38. 4X + Trading Poor odds $4.0k 10 devs
  39. 4X + Procedural Generation Poor odds $3.4k 37 devs
  40. 4X + Turn-Based Tactics Poor odds $3.0k 51 devs
  41. 4X + Tabletop Poor odds $2.5k 10 devs
  42. 4X + PvE Poor odds $1.9k 19 devs
  43. 4X + Sports Dead $44k 1 devs
  44. 4X + Roguelite Dead $17k 8 devs
  45. 4X + Tactical RPG Dead $9.9k 9 devs
  46. 4X + Adventure Dead $5.3k 12 devs
  47. 4X + Auto Battler Dead $5.3k 11 devs
  48. 4X + Card Game Dead $3.4k 8 devs
  49. 4X + 3D Platformer Dead $1.1k 2 devs
  50. Online Co-Op + 4X Dead $1.0k 5 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Stellaris 2016 · $210M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.