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Should I ship a Choices Matter 4X?
4X + Choices Matter
Of 21 developers who shipped a Choices Matter 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×18806 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 51 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 25% | $31k (exactly $31,169) |
| Top 5% | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 60 |
| Announced | 51 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Resource Management
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 71% positive over 55,214 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $4.0k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
Imperator: Rome 2019 · $23M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | Total Conflict: Resistance | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,089 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) | Thunder Devs. |
 | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
 | After Inc: Revival | $17.99 | 1,480 77% | 44k | $799k (exactly $798,756) | Ndemic Creations | |
 | Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution | $24.99 | 72 68% | 2.2k | $54k (exactly $53,978) | Studio Imugi | |
 | Milord | · EA | $9.99 | 104 64% | 3.1k | $31k (exactly $31,169) | iBright Games |
 | Atre: Dominance Wars | · EA | $24.99 | 34 67% | 1.0k | $25k (exactly $25,490) | Ironward |
 | Hyper Empire | $11.99 | 46 78% | 1.4k | $17k (exactly $16,546) | Fair Weather Studios | |
 | Galactum Meridian | · EA | $19.99 | 14 14% | 420 | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) | Hedra Games |
 | Square Wars | · EA | $4.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Gökhan Birçek |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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