Should I ship a Co-op 4X?
4X + Co-op
Only 15 developers shipped a Co-op 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ENDLESS Legend™ 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2479 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $598 (exactly $598) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,485) |
| Top 25% | $274k (exactly $273,867) |
| Top 5% | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 72 |
| Announced | 18 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Co-op; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Grand Strategy, Strategy, Management
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 6,297 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization® V | older | $29.99 | 128,186 95% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $115,328,944) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
 | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
 | STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack | older | $19.99 | 36,153 97% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,680,954) | Petroglyph |
 | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Dune: Spice Wars | older | $34.99 | 11,561 79% | 347k | $12M (exactly $12,135,582) | Shiro Games |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Yield! Fall of Rome | $19.99 | 219 69% | 6.6k | $131k (exactly $131,334) | Billionworlds | |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | OpenFront | · EA | $6.99 | 50 90% | 1.5k | $10k (exactly $10,485) | OpenFront Inc, Evan Pellegrini |
 | Let's Build Wonders: Galaxy | $6.99 | 5 20% | 150 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Sunjoy Meta | |
 | Mech and Tech 1 | $9.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $899 (exactly $899) | colmer_it UG |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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