Should I ship a Card Game 4X?
4X + Card Game
Only 8 developers shipped a Card Game 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Hex, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.4k against a market of $1.5k. 15 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.4k (exactly $3,352) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,195) |
| Top 5% | $156k (exactly $155,922) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Card Game
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,446 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M 
Thea 2: The Shattering 2019 · $1.4M 
Hexarchy 2023 · $738k 
WitchHand 2024 · $222k 
Rogue Hex 2025 · $156k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Thea: The Awakening | older | $19.99 | 3,318 87% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) | MuHa Games |
| | Thea 2: The Shattering | older | $24.99 | 1,892 79% | 57k | $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
| | Hexarchy | older | $19.99 | 1,231 83% | 37k | $738k (exactly $738,231) | Main Tank Software |
| | WitchHand | older | $11.99 | 616 90% | 18k | $222k (exactly $221,575) | Jon Nielsen |
| | Rogue Hex | $19.99 | 260 89% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Topstitch Games | |
 | Last Days of Old Earth | older | $24.99 | 31 38% | 930 | $23k (exactly $23,241) | Auroch Digital |
 | Areteion | $19.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $10k (exactly $10,195) | juxtapositioned | |
 | Square Wars | · EA | $4.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Gökhan Birçek |
 | Rush for the Ages | older | $5.99 | 32 81% | 960 | $5.8k (exactly $5,750) | PUNKCAKE Delicieux |
 | Galactic Empire | older | $24.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $4.5k (exactly $4,498) | NeuroCore Studios |
 | Grow Empire: Rome | $3.99 | 28 64% | 840 | $3.4k (exactly $3,352) | Games Station | |
 | Orbit Economica | $24.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $2.2k (exactly $2,249) | Phoenix Smith | |
 | Haulin' Oats | $9.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) | Gramps Games | |
 | OrbHand | $2.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $718 (exactly $718) | Jesus Rugarcia | |
 | Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus | $19.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | Ke Zhou |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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