Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Colony Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Colony Sim 4X?

4X + Colony Sim

Of 23 developers who shipped a Colony Sim 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $310k, ×210 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×17129 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 77 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 209.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 77 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Colony Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $183k → $30M → $8.0M → $518k → $9.0k → $816k (still earning) → $61k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Colony Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Median $314k (exactly $314,048)
Top 25% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Top 5% $26M (exactly $25,658,867)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 67
Announced 77
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $21.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 260% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Colony Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, City Builder, Management
Price point
$21.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $21.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 64,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.0k, median $310k, 1 in 4 over $2.2M, 1 in 20 over $25M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.0k. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  5. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  7. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  11. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + City BuilderPoor odds43 devs · median $29k · 71 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Norland · EA older $29.99 8,906 81% 267k $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) Long Jaunt
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Nova Roma · EA $29.99 2,085 93% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) Lion Shield
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.