Should I ship a Trading 4X?
4X + Trading
Only 10 developers shipped a Trading 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Europa Universalis V, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×30459 the market median. Revenue is up 220% on the market; 36 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 5% | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 36 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 220% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Trading
- Price point
- $12.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 25,494 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 36 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Anno 2205™ 2015 · $7.3M 
Anno 2070™ 2011 · $6.9M 
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition 2022 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Anno 2205™ | older | $39.99 | 6,115 70% | 183k | $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) | Blue Byte |
| | Anno 2070™ | older | $19.99 | 11,571 59% | 347k | $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) | Blue Byte, Related Designs |
| | Power & Revolution 2022 Edition | older | $49.99 | 815 60% | 24k | $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) | Eversim |
 | Slipways | older | $16.99 | 2,233 93% | 67k | $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) | Beetlewing |
 | X3: Terran Conflict | older | $15.99 | 2,090 84% | 63k | $1.0M (exactly $1,002,573) | Egosoft |
 | Power & Revolution 2021 Edition | older | $49.99 | 629 56% | 19k | $943k (exactly $943,311) | Eversim |
 | Imperiums: Greek Wars | older | $29.99 | 453 83% | 14k | $408k (exactly $407,564) | Kube Games |
 | Void Destroyer 2 | older | $9.99 | 652 80% | 20k | $195k (exactly $195,404) | Iteration 11 |
 | Warp to Sector One | · EA | $11.99 | 41 92% | 1.2k | $15k (exactly $14,748) | hextor.Games |
 | Earth of Oryn | · EA | $14.99 | 31 64% | 930 | $14k (exactly $13,941) | Earth of Oryn |
 | Commander Bug Wars | $9.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | GoldenGod Games | |
 | Exodus: The Colonization of Space | $6.99 | 19 100% | 570 | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) | Artex | |
 | New Stars | $19.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) | adamjr | |
 | Machiavelli the Prince | $9.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | Holistic Design, Inc. | |
 | Orbit Economica | $24.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $2.2k (exactly $2,249) | Phoenix Smith | |
 | MA 2 – President Simulator | $4.99 | 13 69% | 390 | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) | Oxiwyle Inc. | |
 | World War Forex | · EA | $12.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $390 (exactly $390) | Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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