Games › 4X › 4X + Turn-Based Combat
Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat 4X?
4X + Turn-Based Combat
Of 39 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×3601 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 58 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $48,279) |
| Top 5% | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 39 |
| Released games | 117 |
| Announced | 58 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 29,829 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
| | Total War: ROME REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 12,627 77% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,360,512) | Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive |
| | Songs of Conquest | older | $29.99 | 12,127 85% | 364k | $11M (exactly $10,910,662) | Lavapotion |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
| | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
| | Millennia | older | $39.99 | 2,976 67% | 89k | $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) | C Prompt Games |
| | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
| | Shadow Empire | older | $39.99 | 1,431 82% | 43k | $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) | VR Designs |
| | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Elemental: Reforged | $29.99 | 478 73% | 14k | $430k (exactly $430,057) | Stardock Entertainment | |
| | NationWar2:Chronicle | $16.99 | 378 78% | 11k | $193k (exactly $192,667) | Yiming | |
| | Yield! Fall of Rome | $19.99 | 219 69% | 6.6k | $131k (exactly $131,334) | Billionworlds | |
| | Shields of Loyalty | $19.99 | 140 77% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Mosaic Mask Studio | |
| | Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced | $9.99 | 174 95% | 5.2k | $52k (exactly $52,148) | Holistic Design, Inc. | |
| | Global Protocol: New World Order | · EA | $19.99 | 85 71% | 2.6k | $51k (exactly $50,974) | Dorlion Interactive |
| | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.