Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building 4X?

4X + Building

Of 52 developers who shipped a Building 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $34k, ×23 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2423 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 112 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 112 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $183k → $3.7k → $16M → $14k → $52k → $72k → $51k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Median $34k (exactly $33,728)
Top 25% $666k (exactly $665,667)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 159
Announced 112
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Building; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Management
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 70,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $34k, 1 in 4 over $660k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  11. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + City BuilderPoor odds43 devs · median $29k · 71 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Nova Roma · EA $29.99 2,085 93% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) Lion Shield
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.