Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + 4X

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 4X Open World game?

Open World + 4X

Only 17 developers shipped a 4X Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Corsair Cove, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×9.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2423 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 38 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 38 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + 4X
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7M → $30M → $2.0k → $420k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + 4X: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,999)
Median $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 25% $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 66
Announced 38
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 650% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World, 4X; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, City Builder
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 19,312 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $1.8M, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 38 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Against the Storm 2023 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
ENDLESS Space™ 2 older $39.99 17,280 83% 518k $21M (exactly $20,730,816) AMPLITUDE Studios
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Whiskerwood · EA $29.99 3,221 92% 97k $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) Minakata Dynamics
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Nova Roma · EA $29.99 2,085 93% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) Lion Shield
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
Duel Corp. · EA $24.99 1,251 71% 38k $938k (exactly $937,875) Dreameffect Entertainment
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
Periphery Online $4.99 50 72% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Aleksandr Nagaev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.