Should I ship a Survival 4X?
4X + Survival
Of 21 developers who shipped a Survival 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $72k, ×48 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×17129 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $6.6k (exactly $6,624) |
|---|---|
| Median | $72k (exactly $71,976) |
| Top 25% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 73 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $24.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Survival; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, City Builder, Colony Sim
- Price point
- $24.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $24.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 63,125 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.7k. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
Comparable games
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Against the Storm 2023 · $30M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Norland | · EA older | $29.99 | 8,906 81% | 267k | $8.0M (exactly $8,012,728) | Long Jaunt |
 | Songs of Syx | · EA older | $24.99 | 8,842 94% | 265k | $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) | Gamatron AB |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Whiskerwood | · EA | $29.99 | 3,221 92% | 97k | $2.9M (exactly $2,897,934) | Minakata Dynamics |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | Nova Roma | · EA | $29.99 | 2,085 93% | 63k | $1.9M (exactly $1,875,874) | Lion Shield |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown | $27.99 | 374 54% | 11k | $314k (exactly $314,048) | Zugalu Entertainment | |
 | Knights of the Crusades | $19.99 | 166 69% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $99,550) | Reverie World Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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