Should I ship a 4X?
4X
Of 166 developers who shipped a 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 357 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2423 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 357 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 25% | $72k (exactly $71,940) |
| Top 5% | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 166 |
| Released games | 650 |
| Announced | 357 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 70% positive over 160,363 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 357 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
All pairs with 4X
- 4X + Historical Poor odds $61k
- 4X + Alternate History Poor odds $61k
- 4X + Military Poor odds $20k
- 4X + Fantasy Poor odds $13k
- 4X + Medieval Poor odds $7.2k
- 4X + War Poor odds $6.3k
- 4X + Space Poor odds $6.3k
- 4X + Futuristic Poor odds $6.3k
- 4X + Aliens Poor odds $6.3k
- 4X + Sci-fi Poor odds $4.0k
- 4X + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.3k
- 4X + Magic Dead $13k
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
 | Sid Meier's Civilization® V | older | $29.99 | 128,186 95% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $115,328,944) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
 | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
 | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
 | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.