Should I ship a Roguelike 4X?
4X + Roguelike
Only 11 developers shipped a Roguelike 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Quasimorph, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $15k, ×9.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×3601 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 30 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) |
|---|---|
| Median | $15k (exactly $14,748) |
| Top 25% | $86k (exactly $86,052) |
| Top 5% | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 35 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 8,067 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Quasimorph 2026 · $5.4M 
Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M 
Conquest of Elysium 5 2021 · $1.7M 
Thea 2: The Shattering 2019 · $1.4M 
As Far As The Eye 2020 · $1.2M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
| | Thea: The Awakening | older | $19.99 | 3,318 87% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) | MuHa Games |
| | Conquest of Elysium 5 | older | $29.99 | 1,872 90% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,684,238) | Illwinter Game Design |
| | Thea 2: The Shattering | older | $24.99 | 1,892 79% | 57k | $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) | MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio |
| | As Far As The Eye | older | $24.99 | 1,640 73% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) | Unexpected |
 | Warsim: The Realm of Aslona | older | $9.99 | 2,005 96% | 60k | $601k (exactly $600,898) | Huw Millward |
 | Legend Creatures(传奇生物) | older | $4.99 | 3,780 89% | 113k | $566k (exactly $565,866) | HideChara |
 | Ragnorium | older | $24.99 | 586 57% | 18k | $439k (exactly $439,324) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | Conquest of Elysium 4 | older | $24.99 | 509 89% | 15k | $382k (exactly $381,597) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Rogue State Revolution | older | $12.99 | 483 75% | 14k | $188k (exactly $188,225) | LRDGames, Inc. |
 | Rogue Hex | $19.99 | 260 89% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Topstitch Games | |
 | Three Kingdoms : Alias | · EA | $7.99 | 359 79% | 11k | $86k (exactly $86,052) | Plotrick |
 | Myths and Legends | $17.99 | 54 92% | 1.6k | $29k (exactly $29,144) | Artificial Worlds | |
 | Hyper Empire | $11.99 | 46 78% | 1.4k | $17k (exactly $16,546) | Fair Weather Studios | |
 | Warp to Sector One | · EA | $11.99 | 41 92% | 1.2k | $15k (exactly $14,748) | hextor.Games |
 | Square Wars | · EA | $4.99 | 43 79% | 1.3k | $6.4k (exactly $6,437) | Gökhan Birçek |
 | Commander Bug Wars | $9.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | GoldenGod Games | |
 | Trailblader | $4.99 | 28 89% | 840 | $4.2k (exactly $4,192) | 迟到的南雨亭 | |
 | Khaldun: Text Based Strategy | $4.99 | 22 95% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | SkyWolf |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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