Do I ship it?

Games4X4X + Auto Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Auto Battler 4X?

4X + Auto Battler

Only 11 developers shipped an Auto Battler 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Songs of Silence, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.3k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 20 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Auto Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for 4X + Auto Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,280)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $71,940)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 31
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Auto Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Auto Battler
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,141 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hero's Hour older $17.99 4,643 79% 139k $2.5M (exactly $2,505,827) Benjamin "ThingOnItsOwn" Hauer
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
Line War older $24.99 1,076 80% 32k $807k (exactly $806,677) Studio Centurion
Legend Creatures(传奇生物) older $4.99 3,780 89% 113k $566k (exactly $565,866) HideChara
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Legendary Creatures 2 older $5.99 885 70% 27k $159k (exactly $159,034) HideChara
Kingdom Ascension $11.99 200 82% 6.0k $72k (exactly $71,940) RainRingStudio
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Hyper Empire $11.99 46 78% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,546) Fair Weather Studios
Roots of Harmony $8.00 22 100% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,280) Guillaume Beaumel
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station
Khaldun: Text Based Strategy $4.99 22 95% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) SkyWolf
​Shattered Lands (破碎之地) $6.99 4 25% 120 $839 (exactly $839) VoidStudio
Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus $19.99 1 0% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Ke Zhou

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.