Should I ship a Board Game 4X?
4X + Board Game
Only 12 developers shipped a Board Game 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Folk Emerging, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×6.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×37 the market median. Revenue is up 1930% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,195) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $48,279) |
| Top 5% | $55k (exactly $54,728) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 44 |
| Announced | 20 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1930% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Board Game
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Board Game
- Price point
- $12.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 357 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M 
Scythe: Digital Edition 2018 · $1.9M 
As Far As The Eye 2020 · $1.2M 
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition 2020 · $1.0M 
Line War 2022 · $807k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Thea: The Awakening | older | $19.99 | 3,318 87% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) | MuHa Games |
| | Scythe: Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,164 89% | 95k | $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) | The Knights of Unity |
| | As Far As The Eye | older | $24.99 | 1,640 73% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) | Unexpected |
| | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,705 71% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) | Dire Wolf |
| | Line War | older | $24.99 | 1,076 80% | 32k | $807k (exactly $806,677) | Studio Centurion |
 | Nexus 5X | older | $14.99 | 884 90% | 27k | $398k (exactly $397,535) | Whatboy Games |
 | WitchHand | older | $11.99 | 616 90% | 18k | $222k (exactly $221,575) | Jon Nielsen |
 | Precipice | older | $7.99 | 291 81% | 8.7k | $70k (exactly $69,753) | LRDGames, Inc. |
 | Folk Emerging | $24.99 | 73 86% | 2.2k | $55k (exactly $54,728) | Curious Dynamics | |
 | Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution | $24.99 | 72 68% | 2.2k | $54k (exactly $53,978) | Studio Imugi | |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Astro Protocol | $11.99 | 66 93% | 2.0k | $24k (exactly $23,740) | Null Vector Studios | |
 | Epoch of Guardians | $11.99 | 32 81% | 960 | $12k (exactly $11,510) | 伊洛维游戏 | |
 | Areteion | $19.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $10k (exactly $10,195) | juxtapositioned | |
 | Tree Kingdoms | $5.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) | Biscuit Factory Games | |
 | Haulin' Oats | $9.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) | Gramps Games | |
 | LouveSystems' Realms | $12.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) | LouveSystems | |
 | Imperial Wager: The Shattered Crown of Augustus | $19.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $600 (exactly $600) | Ke Zhou |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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