Should I ship a Space Sim 4X?
4X + Space Sim
Only 13 developers shipped a Space Sim 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Solargene, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×544 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) |
| Top 25% | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) |
| Top 5% | $816k (exactly $815,617) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 54 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 450% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Space Sim
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,011 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 40 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion 2012 · $6.1M 
Starpoint Gemini Warlords 2017 · $3.2M 
Star Trek: Infinite 2023 · $2.7M 
Industries of Titan 2023 · $1.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion | older | $19.99 | 10,243 93% | 307k | $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
| | Starpoint Gemini Warlords | older | $34.99 | 3,076 72% | 92k | $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) | Little Green Men Games |
| | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
| | Industries of Titan | older | $29.99 | 1,553 61% | 47k | $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) | Brace Yourself Games |
 | X3: Terran Conflict | older | $15.99 | 2,090 84% | 63k | $1.0M (exactly $1,002,573) | Egosoft |
 | Solargene | $34.99 | 777 77% | 23k | $816k (exactly $815,617) | Alexander Semenov | |
 | Airship: Kingdoms Adrift | older | $29.99 | 902 75% | 27k | $812k (exactly $811,529) | Revolution Industry |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire: Trinity® | older | $9.99 | 687 78% | 21k | $206k (exactly $205,894) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Void Destroyer 2 | older | $9.99 | 652 80% | 20k | $195k (exactly $195,404) | Iteration 11 |
 | Riftborne | · EA | $7.99 | 108 91% | 3.2k | $26k (exactly $25,888) | Pitio Productions |
 | Warp to Sector One | · EA | $11.99 | 41 92% | 1.2k | $15k (exactly $14,748) | hextor.Games |
 | Galactum Meridian | · EA | $19.99 | 14 14% | 420 | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) | Hedra Games |
 | Star Titans : War of the Galaxy | $14.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Mediawork | |
 | Leaks In Space | · EA | $14.99 | 14 71% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Frostech Game Studio |
 | Exodus: The Colonization of Space | $6.99 | 19 100% | 570 | $4.0k (exactly $3,984) | Artex | |
 | New Stars | $19.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) | adamjr | |
 | After the Crash : Colony | · EA | $6.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) | Penche Software |
 | Let's Build Wonders: Galaxy | $6.99 | 5 20% | 150 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Sunjoy Meta |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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