Should I ship a Turn-Based 4X?
4X + Turn-Based
Only 16 developers shipped a Turn-Based 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $190k, ×129 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×15418 the market median. Revenue is up 945% on the market; 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $13k (exactly $12,529) |
|---|---|
| Median | $193k (exactly $192,667) |
| Top 25% | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) |
| Top 5% | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 144 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 945% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- 4X
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Turn-Based; all of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 43,548 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization® V | older | $29.99 | 128,186 95% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $115,328,944) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | ENDLESS Space™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 17,280 83% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,730,816) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 27,319 95% | 820k | $16M (exactly $16,383,204) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games | |
 | NationWar2:Chronicle | $16.99 | 378 78% | 11k | $193k (exactly $192,667) | Yiming | |
 | Yield! Fall of Rome | $19.99 | 219 69% | 6.6k | $131k (exactly $131,334) | Billionworlds | |
 | Shields of Loyalty | $19.99 | 140 77% | 4.2k | $84k (exactly $83,958) | Mosaic Mask Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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