Should I ship an Adventure 4X?
4X + Adventure
Only 12 developers shipped an Adventure 4X in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Eastern Era, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $5.3k against a market of $1.5k. 19 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $30 (exactly $30) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.3k (exactly $5,280) |
| Top 25% | $100k (exactly $99,697) |
| Top 5% | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 88 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 71% positive over 5,916 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack 2010 · $22M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M 
ENDLESS Legend™ 2014 · $13M 
Homeworld Remastered Collection 2015 · $13M 
Age of Wonders III 2014 · $6.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS™ Empire at War - Gold Pack | older | $19.99 | 36,153 97% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,680,954) | Petroglyph |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Homeworld Remastered Collection | older | $34.99 | 11,977 87% | 359k | $13M (exactly $12,572,257) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac) |
| | Age of Wonders III | older | $29.99 | 7,020 81% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) | Triumph Studios |
 | Oriental Empires | older | $29.99 | 2,584 80% | 78k | $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) | Shining Pixel Studios |
 | Eastern Era | $24.99 | 3,028 65% | 91k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) | FunYoo Games | |
 | Songs of Silence | $29.99 | 2,367 79% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) | Chimera Entertainment | |
 | A Total War Saga: TROY | older | $19.99 | 3,324 71% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,993,403) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Distant Worlds: Universe | older | $29.99 | 1,417 71% | 43k | $1.3M (exactly $1,274,875) | Code Force |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Kingdom Ascension | $11.99 | 200 82% | 6.0k | $72k (exactly $71,940) | RainRingStudio | |
 | Milord | · EA | $9.99 | 104 64% | 3.1k | $31k (exactly $31,169) | iBright Games |
 | Roots of Harmony | $8.00 | 22 100% | 660 | $5.3k (exactly $5,280) | Guillaume Beaumel | |
 | After the Crash : Colony | · EA | $6.99 | 14 78% | 420 | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) | Penche Software |
 | Let's Build Wonders: Galaxy | $6.99 | 5 20% | 150 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | Sunjoy Meta | |
 | Molest | $0.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $30 (exactly $30) | 臻新 | |
 | Semantics | $34.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Semantics |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.