Do I ship it?

Games › 4X › 4X + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim 4X?

4X + Political Sim

Of 29 developers who shipped a Political Sim 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×18806 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $541k → $14k → $190k → $0 → $6.2k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Median $12k (exactly $11,510)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $90,210)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,170,938)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 65
Announced 50
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X, Political Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Management
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $44.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $44.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 71,188 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $90k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds21 devs · median $61k · 36 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M Imperator: Rome 2019 · $23M Total Conflict: Resistance 2023 · EA · $4.6M Ascension 2025 · EA · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Total Conflict: Resistance · EA older $29.99 5,089 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) Thunder Devs.
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition older $49.99 629 56% 19k $943k (exactly $943,311) Eversim
Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty · EA older $16.99 1,708 69% 51k $871k (exactly $870,568) 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games)
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Europa Universalis III Complete older $14.99 1,372 85% 41k $617k (exactly $616,988) Paradox Development Studio
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
SandTable War: Three Kingdoms $9.99 301 84% 9.0k $90k (exactly $90,210) 古玩工作室
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick
Fall of an Empire $29.99 80 67% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) JG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.