Should I ship a Wargame 4X?
4X + Wargame
Of 60 developers who shipped a Wargame 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×444 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 105 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,948) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,485) |
| Top 25% | $52k (exactly $52,148) |
| Top 5% | $666k (exactly $665,667) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 60 |
| Released games | 178 |
| Announced | 105 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- 4X, Wargame; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grand Strategy, Simulation
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 29,994 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
4X with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + CombatFair
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Strategy RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Total War: ROME REMASTERED 2021 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Total War: ROME REMASTERED | older | $29.99 | 12,627 77% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,360,512) | Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
 | Airships: Conquer the Skies | older | $24.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) | David Stark |
 | Total Conflict: Resistance | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,089 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) | Thunder Devs. |
 | Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith | older | $39.99 | 1,924 94% | 58k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator | older | $44.99 | 1,686 90% | 51k | $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) | Illwinter Game Design |
 | Ultimate General: American Revolution | $49.99 | 917 51% | 28k | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) | Game-Labs | |
 | Mandate Order | · EA | $19.99 | 1,110 81% | 33k | $666k (exactly $665,667) | Digital Sky |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | NationWar2:Chronicle | $16.99 | 378 78% | 11k | $193k (exactly $192,667) | Yiming | |
 | Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond | $24.99 | 253 39% | 7.6k | $190k (exactly $189,674) | Jujubee | |
 | Pennon and Battle | $18.99 | 175 69% | 5.3k | $100k (exactly $99,697) | PB Studio | |
 | Knights of the Crusades | $19.99 | 166 69% | 5.0k | $100k (exactly $99,550) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | SandTable War: Three Kingdoms | $9.99 | 301 84% | 9.0k | $90k (exactly $90,210) | 古玩工作室 | |
 | TOHOTOPIA | · EA | $3.99 | 732 97% | 22k | $88k (exactly $87,620) | Remilia Command |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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